Posted on March 22, 2000

Dear All:

Tomorrow morning is the announcment of the Nobel prize in economics. Please send your votes to by midnight tonight!

Ludwig will take the winner out to lunch.

Ludwig’s Guesses:

I think the Nobel prize will be given in one of the following categories:
(1) IO/Theory
(2) Public Economics
(3) Experimental Economics
(4) Econometrics.
Labor is also a possibility.

For (1), I think the candidates are: Peter Diamond, George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Joe Stiglitz (in order of likelihood). Oliver Hart would be a choice for contract theory, but probably too young. I actually think a prize with the first three is likely.

(2) Martin Feldstein.

(3) Vernon Smith and Charles Plott together.

(4) Clive Granger, Robert Engle, and Jerry Hausman (I like White a lot, but he’s too young). It will go to three people in this field.

And my money is on #3, although a very risky choice for the Swedish Royal academy, since experimental is controversial. My second bet is on #2 and my personal hope is that it’s #4 (but Jerry is too young).

That’s all folks. Please send me your votes.

October 10, 2000